Géopolitique - Ukraine, Strabisme divergent
**Le conflit ouvert en Ukraine est assez typique de notre vision occidentale de la géo-politique : Une vision caricaturale de la Russie face à notre modèle de société pourtant remis en cause par la crise mondiale. Et du coté russe, la vision est tout aussi tranchée, aboutissant à un strabisme divergent. (in english at the bottom)**
Version française sur Unidivers.
The open conflict in Ukraine is quite typical of our Western view of geopolitics : A caricature of Russia facing our model of society yet challenged by the global crisis. And on the Russian side , the vision is equally determined , leading to a divergent strabismus.
Let’s borrow a moment few arguments to sociologist and sinologist Jean- Louis Rocca , about our vision of China. As with every great power, France media , and even intellectuals , tends to have a binary vision. On the one hand an idolatrous admiration of the personality of Putin, enlightened despot , dictator who restored skilful Russian influence in the world. On the other hand, a wholesale rejection of the Russian method, personified by Putin, without worrying about the features of the country’s population and its complex geography. If Jean- Louis Rocca borrowed arguments to Emilie Frenkiel , in the book “The China movement” , it would have been possible to write : “ Why we do not understand Russia “ and “ Why we do not understand the United States “ . The vagaries of our current diplomacy are , alas , witnesses .
Russian side , criticism is easy on the management of the Ukrainian crisis . Besides the issue of gas that undermines relations between the EU , Russia and Ukraine, the question arises of intervention of NATO in Eastern Europe. The organization of the North Atlantic Treaty has ignored history and historical relations of the region to try to install zones of influence in energy and economic goals. While the “realistic” movement of American diplomacy (see Stephen Walt , for example) , calls for more cooperation and mutual understanding with Russia that are residues of “ hawks “ of the Bush era that seem resume orders (read President Obama’s speech of May 28, 2014 ) . Thus do we see mercenary company Blackwater in Ukraine , as before in Iraq. Russian diplomacy has therefore the best role to denounce military attacks against a population that claims the right to independence.
As you can see , between these two visions , the reality follows more tortuous paths. The presidential election of May 25 is no more relevant than the referendum in eastern Ukraine. Moreover , there was no independent observers deployed sufficiently to ensure a decent vote . The victory of a wealthy businessman , linked to business with the West and accused of corruption as many candidates, is symptomatic. Between corruption and extreme nationalist or separatist, who could choose the Ukrainians?
The Yugoslav previous
A Serbo- Ukrainian national spoke with the situation despite its current countries that reminded him of the drama lived in Yugoslavia 20 years ago . The lesson has not been used by the EU or NATO. The Kosovo issue is ignored despite continual exactions today and latent resentment of the Serbian population. Again, the neighbors of yesterday became irreconcilable the next day because they become pawns or toys for the great powers. The EU diplomacy is non-existent, it is a beginning of new Cold War that we are witnessing , with a glaring imbalance between skilled diplomats on one side and representatives of trades on the other side ( cf John Kerry links with the oil industry ) . But climbing fortunately has nothing to do with the period 50-80 .
Ukraine , Syria European release ?
A simplistic view ( Russian bases in the Crimea and Syria ) would have us believe that Ukraine will become a quagmire like Syria, with lack of diplomatic cooperation between belligerents supports. The situation is however very different than it is in the side of the Baathist police state , with the influence of the energy issue and the role of neighboring countries (Turkey and Lebanon are very disturbed with the Syrian issue , the latter being at the edge of political implosion) and the religious question . The only parallel to note is the need for a consensus among the allies of each camp to gather around the table the parties involved. As always , we must also find the neutral and strong personality that will recreate the conditions of a meeting. Petro Poroshenko gave no pledges despite his political position ( occasional ?) of Left center.
Strabismus in Ukraine also benefits to powers say unaligned . Besides, China has signed a supply agreement with Russia gas these days . For 25 years , Europe had no more strong diplomacy , either in one of its leading members or EU level . Scandinavian countries by diplomatic tradition and neutrality have material influence in this area but not weighing in EU institutions , they are isolated . The Ukrainian question is another example of the shift that takes place in this world , a world that is not understood either side USA in the Republican and Democratic staffs . Who will open your eyes to the world diplomacy looks in the right direction, that of the interest of the people ?